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Module 9 · Sampling and Inference Module contents
Module 9  ·  Card 10 / 16beginner

The Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is the default claim a test looks for evidence against, usually that there is no effect or no difference.

The alternative hypothesis is what you suspect instead, such as the new page raising sales.

For example, a null hypothesis might state that average delivery times are the same in 2 cities.

A test measures evidence against the null, so it can reject the null but never prove it true.

Writing the null down before seeing the data keeps the test honest, because the question cannot be bent to fit the results.

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Module 09 · Sampling and Inference · 16 concepts
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The Null Hypothesis, in more detail

The null hypothesis is the starting position a test assumes until the data argues otherwise.

It is usually the dull explanation: no difference, no effect, no relationship.

Making it specific is what lets a test work out how surprising the data is.

The null is written as an exact statement, such as that the 2 means are equal.

The alternative can be 2-sided, meaning a difference in either direction, or 1-sided, meaning larger only.

Choosing a 1-sided test after seeing which way the data points doubles the real false alarm rate.

The result is either to reject the null or to fail to reject it, never to accept it.

Failing to reject means the data is consistent with the null, which is weaker than showing the null is true.

The null does not have to be zero; it can be a value from past results, such as a 30 minute average.

A badly chosen null makes a test pointless, such as testing whether a conversion rate is exactly 0 when it plainly is not.

Every statistical test has a null built in, so knowing it tells you what a significant result actually means.

For a test of whether 2 categorical variables are related, the null is that they are not.

In practice, writing the null and the alternative in plain words before collecting data prevents confusion later.

Teams that skip this step often argue afterwards about what the test was meant to show.

The common misconception is that failing to reject the null proves it, when absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

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Question 1
A team suspects that bike couriers deliver faster than van drivers. What is the null hypothesis for testing this?
Sampling and Inference

16 concepts in this module, then a graded test with every answer explained.

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