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Module 9 · Sampling and Inference Module contents
Module 9  ·  Card 16 / 16advanced

Multiple Testing Problem

The multiple testing problem is that running many tests makes some false positives almost certain.

At a threshold of 0.05, about 1 in 20 tests of true null hypotheses comes out significant by chance.

For example, testing 20 unrelated metrics gives about a 64% chance that at least 1 looks significant when nothing changed.

The Bonferroni correction divides the threshold by the number of tests, so each of 20 tests must reach 0.0025.

Picking which results to report after running many tests, called p-hacking, makes chance findings look real.

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Module 09 · Sampling and Inference · 16 concepts
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Multiple Testing Problem, in more detail

The multiple testing problem appears whenever many hypotheses are tested and only the significant ones get noticed.

Each test has a small chance of a false alarm, and those chances build up across many tests.

With enough tests, finding something significant becomes almost certain even when nothing is real.

At a 0.05 threshold, the chance of at least 1 false alarm in n independent tests is 1 minus 0.95 to the power n.

For 10 tests that is about 40%, and for 100 tests it is over 99%.

Extra tests arrive in many forms: many metrics, many customer segments, many time windows or many versions of an analysis.

The Bonferroni correction keeps the overall false alarm rate at 5% or below but makes each test much stricter.

Its strictness costs power, so real effects among many tests become harder to find.

The Benjamini Hochberg method instead controls the false discovery rate, the expected share of significant results that are false.

It suits exploratory work with many tests, where a few false findings among many true ones are acceptable.

P-hacking is testing many variations and reporting only the ones that worked, often without meaning to.

Choosing measures, cut-offs or subgroups after seeing the data all count as hidden extra tests.

Writing down the main hypothesis and analysis before the data arrives, called pre-registration, is the strongest defence.

In practice, teams name 1 primary measure in advance and treat everything else as a lead to check later.

The common misconception is that a significant result among many tests is as strong as the same result from a single planned test.

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Question 1
An experiment tracks 20 metrics. 1 shows p = 0.04 and the other 19 show nothing. What is the right reading?
Sampling and Inference

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