Start studying
Module 10 · Experimentation Module contents
Module 10  ·  Card 8 / 13advanced

Peeking in A/B Tests

Peeking means checking a test's p-value repeatedly while it runs and stopping as soon as it looks significant.

Each look is another chance for noise to cross the threshold, so the real false alarm rate rises well above 5%.

For example, checking a test with no real effect every day for a month can push the false alarm rate past 20%.

The fix is to set the sample size in advance, or to use sequential methods designed for repeated looks.

Watching results is fine for spotting a broken test; the problem is stopping on a result that has just crossed the line.

Learn in depth ↓
Module 10 · Experimentation · 13 concepts
In depth  /  15 lines

Peeking in A/B Tests, in more detail

Peeking is one of the most common ways that otherwise well-run tests produce false wins.

It feels harmless, because looking at results does not change them.

The harm comes from the decision rule: stopping as soon as the result looks good.

A p-value wanders up and down as data arrives, even when there is no real effect.

Over many looks it is likely to dip below 0.05 at some point, purely by chance.

A test that stops at the first dip is therefore much more likely to declare a false win than one that waits.

The more often the team looks, the higher the real false alarm rate climbs.

Peeking also exaggerates real effects, because tests tend to stop at a lucky high point.

The simplest fix is to set the sample size in advance and analyse once, at the end.

Sequential testing methods allow a planned number of looks by spreading the false alarm budget across them.

Some methods, such as always-valid p-values, allow a look at any time without inflating false alarms.

Switching to a different style of statistics does not automatically fix peeking, since stopping rules can bias any method.

Looking early is still useful for spotting broken tests, such as an empty treatment group or a crash.

In practice, teams agree that early looks are for safety only, never for declaring a winner.

The usual mistake is believing that a result which crossed 0.05 is significant, regardless of how many looks it took.

Test yourself

One question on this card. Every option explains itself once you pick, right or wrong.

Question 1
A team checks its test every morning and stops on day 4, the first day p falls below 0.05. Why is this result suspect?
Experimentation

13 concepts in this module, then a graded test with every answer explained.

Study this module →
↑↓ move↵ openesc close